Imagine a business owner who sits down and works out a budget for his business for the next year, but works out that budget so that he will spend more than he makes. He realizes this, and knows he will have to borrow money to pay for everything in his budget.
Now, in that budget there are different types of things. One is the wages of his employees. Another is the cost of buying the things he needs to run his business - paper, cars, steel, whatever. Another is the payments on loans he's already taken out in previous years.
Being aware of this, he makes a plan to get the money he needs to pay all of his budgeted expenses by borrowing it when the time comes that he needs the extra funds. For whatever reason, he decides this is the best way to run his business for the next year.
But, everyone knows about this budget that will need a new loan to fully fund - his employees, his suppliers, his bank. One by one, each of them comes to him and asks him about his plan to pay for his budgeted expenses for the next year.
The employees come, and they say, "Boss, it doesn't look like you're going to have enough money to pay us our wages under this plan. What are you planning to do about this?" And the man tells them, "Don't worry. I'm going to take out a new loan, so when your wages come due, I'll be able to pay them. Just keep on working. You can trust me. I've never failed to pay my debts."
The suppliers come to him, and they say, "Sir, it doesn't look like you're going to have enough money to pay us for the goods we supply to your business under this plan. Should we keep supplying you and trust you to pay, or should we demand cash in advance?" The man looks them all in the eyes and says, "Don't worry. I'm going to take out a new loan, so when it comes time to pay you for the things you've furnished me for my business, I'll be able to pay you. Just keep on sending the supplies. You can trust me. I've never failed to pay my debts."
His banker comes to him, and says, "It doesn't look like you're going to have enough money to pay your loan we made you under this plan. Should we renew that loan, or make you pay it all now, to be sure we get our money?" And he tells his banker, "Don't worry. I'm going to take out a new loan, so I'll be able to pay you back when my debt to you comes due. I have a plan. You will recall that I've done this every year when it was time to pay you. You can trust me. I've never failed to pay my debts."
But, then, when the time comes when he doesn't have enough money to pay his employees for the work they've already done for him, or his suppliers for the goods they've already furnished him, or his bank for the money it already loaned him, he thinks, "Now that I'm right down to it, I don't think this was such a good plan. It seems to me that I should have adopted a budget for my business that was balanced, and didn't require me to borrow any more money. Yes, I should have done that a long time ago. Well, I'm just going to change my plan, and I'm not going to get that new loan that I promised I'd get, the promise I made to my employees who worked for me, to my suppliers who provided their goods to me, to my bank which loaned me money to run my business in the past. I'm just going to break that promise."
So, he doesn't get the loan. He doesn't pay his employees for the work they've done. He doesn't pay his suppliers for the things they've sold him. And he doesn't pay his bank the money he owes them. This is not because he can't pay them, because he could take out that new loan he promised them all he'd take out. This is not because he doesn't owe them all fair and square, because they all have valid claims to be paid. Honest claims. It is just because he changed his mind.
They relied on his word, and he broke it.
That's exactly what the Congress of the United States is threatening to do. Break our promises. We promised we'd pay, and they're about to break our promise. We, the People. Remember us?
I have often said that people get the government they deserve. We elected these folks who are about to dishonor our debt, about to break our promise. Unfortunately, not only will they dishonor the debt of the United States, they will dishonor the United States of America. They will dishonor themselves. And they will dishonor us.
But, maybe we deserve it.
Of course, if we don't do something about global climate change, and fast, the dishonoring of the United States is going to be a tiny thing in the course of human affairs, which are likely to have a very short future anyway.
Tuesday, July 26, 2011
Thursday, July 14, 2011
Sad for Mitch McConnell
Yesterday I wrote an article praising Senator Mitch McConnell for a tremendous compromise idea he came up with regarding raising the United States' debt ceiling. He deserves praise for finding a way out of the dead end that the President and Congress were in.
Today, I hear that he is "selling" the idea to his fellow Republicans as something they need to do to keep President Obama from being re-elected, rather than as something they need to do in the best interests of the American people and the world.
How sad.
Today, I hear that he is "selling" the idea to his fellow Republicans as something they need to do to keep President Obama from being re-elected, rather than as something they need to do in the best interests of the American people and the world.
How sad.
Wednesday, July 13, 2011
Praise for Mitch McConnell
Yesterday, Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell did something responsible, and he deserves a great deal of praise for doing it.
He proposed a compromise in the negotiations for raising the United States' debt ceiling that will work.
As I understand it, the Congress would pass legislation that allows the President to raise the debt ceiling on his own initiative, without the approval of Congress. He would have to do it in steps, and there are details to those steps, but they really aren't relevant to the core of the idea proposed by Senator McConnell.
However, to raise the debt ceiling at any of the steps, the President would have to notify Congress of his intention to do so and propose specific budget cuts equal to the amount by which the debt ceiling would be raised. The Congress would then have to pass a "resolution of disapproval" to take away the President's authority to increase the debt ceiling at that step. However, the President could veto the Congress' resolution, and unless the Congress could get two-thirds of each house to override the President's veto, the President could raise the debt ceiling on his own initiative.
Later, at the time the Congress approves the budget, they could enact the President's proposed budget cuts, or some of them, or none of them, or different ones.
It is an elegant and statesmanlike compromise.
If the President thinks the debt ceiling should be raised, he can do it, no strings attached, as it ought to be, but he takes full responsibility for doing it and he has to put our money where his mouth is and propose budget cuts in an equal amount.
If the Congress thinks the debt ceiling should not be raised, they can vote against it, but they can't stop it unless they can get two out of every three of their colleagues to vote with them.
Later, the Congress can debate spending when spending out to be debated - when the budget is adopted. If they think we shouldn't be borrowing so much money, they can vote to stop spending so much money.
And, if the Congress takes the budget cuts the President proposed when he raised the debt ceiling, he can't complain, because they were the budget cuts he proposed. If they don't - either because they made different budget cuts or weren't willing to cut as much as he proposed - they have only themselves to blame. And, by the way, the voters also have them to blame, if they want to blame someone.
No one can really keep the other from doing what they think is right, and voters can judge each elected official by what they do, not by what they were strong-armed into doing by the other side.
If there are enough adults in the room, it should work. If there are enough adults in the room.
Of course, if we don't do something to control global climate change, and soon, the debt ceiling crisis will look like a game of Trivial Pursuit, no matter how it comes out. None of this will really matter.
He proposed a compromise in the negotiations for raising the United States' debt ceiling that will work.
As I understand it, the Congress would pass legislation that allows the President to raise the debt ceiling on his own initiative, without the approval of Congress. He would have to do it in steps, and there are details to those steps, but they really aren't relevant to the core of the idea proposed by Senator McConnell.
However, to raise the debt ceiling at any of the steps, the President would have to notify Congress of his intention to do so and propose specific budget cuts equal to the amount by which the debt ceiling would be raised. The Congress would then have to pass a "resolution of disapproval" to take away the President's authority to increase the debt ceiling at that step. However, the President could veto the Congress' resolution, and unless the Congress could get two-thirds of each house to override the President's veto, the President could raise the debt ceiling on his own initiative.
Later, at the time the Congress approves the budget, they could enact the President's proposed budget cuts, or some of them, or none of them, or different ones.
It is an elegant and statesmanlike compromise.
If the President thinks the debt ceiling should be raised, he can do it, no strings attached, as it ought to be, but he takes full responsibility for doing it and he has to put our money where his mouth is and propose budget cuts in an equal amount.
If the Congress thinks the debt ceiling should not be raised, they can vote against it, but they can't stop it unless they can get two out of every three of their colleagues to vote with them.
Later, the Congress can debate spending when spending out to be debated - when the budget is adopted. If they think we shouldn't be borrowing so much money, they can vote to stop spending so much money.
And, if the Congress takes the budget cuts the President proposed when he raised the debt ceiling, he can't complain, because they were the budget cuts he proposed. If they don't - either because they made different budget cuts or weren't willing to cut as much as he proposed - they have only themselves to blame. And, by the way, the voters also have them to blame, if they want to blame someone.
No one can really keep the other from doing what they think is right, and voters can judge each elected official by what they do, not by what they were strong-armed into doing by the other side.
If there are enough adults in the room, it should work. If there are enough adults in the room.
Of course, if we don't do something to control global climate change, and soon, the debt ceiling crisis will look like a game of Trivial Pursuit, no matter how it comes out. None of this will really matter.
Wednesday, July 6, 2011
Now the Democrats
A few weeks ago, I criticized the Republicans in Congress for predicating a vote to increase the United States' debt limit on an agreement to cut spending. I said then and I say now, even the prospect of defaulting on our debt is too grave to play games with.
Now, the Democrats have said they won't vote to increase the debt limit unless the Republicans agree to increase taxes (or decrease tax spending or enhance revenue or whatever it's called these days). That's just as bad!
Someone needs to step up to the plate and say, "We can't play this game. We all need to vote for a clean, straight up increase in the debt ceiling without any deals or restrictions. This is too important. Important to our nation, important to its people, and important to the world."
Are there really no patriots left?
Of course, if we don't do something about global climate change, and fast, none of it will matter anyway. It may already be too late.
Now, the Democrats have said they won't vote to increase the debt limit unless the Republicans agree to increase taxes (or decrease tax spending or enhance revenue or whatever it's called these days). That's just as bad!
Someone needs to step up to the plate and say, "We can't play this game. We all need to vote for a clean, straight up increase in the debt ceiling without any deals or restrictions. This is too important. Important to our nation, important to its people, and important to the world."
Are there really no patriots left?
Of course, if we don't do something about global climate change, and fast, none of it will matter anyway. It may already be too late.
Friday, June 3, 2011
Shame!
This week, the U.S. House of Representatives defeated a bill to raise the U.S. debt ceiling. Failure to raise the debt ceiling will mean that the United States will default on its debt. That would be devastating for not only the U.S. economy, but the world's economy. Even the potential that the United States might default on its debt can injure the United States financially in major ways. The United States never defaults on its debt. That's why United States Treasury Bills are the safest investment in the world.
While there were both Republicans and Democrats voting against the bill, the Republicans went on record saying that the defeat of the bill was intended to send a message to President Obama that the Republicans in the House will not agree to raise the debt ceiling unless President Obama and the Democrats agree to significant cuts in the current federal budget.
Unfortunately, that also sends the same message to every investor in the world - all those who purchase the debt of the United States government. If nothing else, that raises the cost of borrowing money for the United States, which runs up the deficit even higher, which isn't good. It is supposedly the thing the Republicans are most concerned about, but obviously they aren't.
In any event, the Republicans are playing chicken with the world economy. They know better.
The U.S. Congress should pass a clean bill raising the federal debt ceiling, so all the world will know that we won't, under any circumstances, default on our debt. Then they can argue about how much to cut the budget.
Even if the Republicans and Democrats can't agree on how much to cut the federal budget, or whether to cut it at all, the world needs to know, beyond any doubt, that we won't default on our debt. If you buy a U.S. government security, you're going to get paid. No matter what.
The phrase "as sound as a dollar" didn't become trite for no reason and it is crucial that it remain true.
Shame on the U.S. House of Representatives for risking the well-being of everyone in the world! Because that's what they're doing. Shame on them!
While there were both Republicans and Democrats voting against the bill, the Republicans went on record saying that the defeat of the bill was intended to send a message to President Obama that the Republicans in the House will not agree to raise the debt ceiling unless President Obama and the Democrats agree to significant cuts in the current federal budget.
Unfortunately, that also sends the same message to every investor in the world - all those who purchase the debt of the United States government. If nothing else, that raises the cost of borrowing money for the United States, which runs up the deficit even higher, which isn't good. It is supposedly the thing the Republicans are most concerned about, but obviously they aren't.
In any event, the Republicans are playing chicken with the world economy. They know better.
The U.S. Congress should pass a clean bill raising the federal debt ceiling, so all the world will know that we won't, under any circumstances, default on our debt. Then they can argue about how much to cut the budget.
Even if the Republicans and Democrats can't agree on how much to cut the federal budget, or whether to cut it at all, the world needs to know, beyond any doubt, that we won't default on our debt. If you buy a U.S. government security, you're going to get paid. No matter what.
The phrase "as sound as a dollar" didn't become trite for no reason and it is crucial that it remain true.
Shame on the U.S. House of Representatives for risking the well-being of everyone in the world! Because that's what they're doing. Shame on them!
Wednesday, May 18, 2011
Supporting President Obama
This spring, President Obama announced that he would run for re-election as President of the United States. It wasn't exactly a huge surprise, but now it's official.
I want to support President Obama in his re-election bid, but I have one question for him. I'll put it here, since I don't think he'll read my e-mail.
"Mr. President, I'd like to support you in your re-election for President, but I have a problem. You see, I want to be truthful, so when my friends ask me, I'll have to tell them the truth about why I support you. So, before I announce my support for your re-election, I want to give you the chance to decline my support, since I'm not sure how many votes it will actually get you when I tell my friends I'm supporting you because you aren't as bad as the Republicans."
I want to support President Obama in his re-election bid, but I have one question for him. I'll put it here, since I don't think he'll read my e-mail.
"Mr. President, I'd like to support you in your re-election for President, but I have a problem. You see, I want to be truthful, so when my friends ask me, I'll have to tell them the truth about why I support you. So, before I announce my support for your re-election, I want to give you the chance to decline my support, since I'm not sure how many votes it will actually get you when I tell my friends I'm supporting you because you aren't as bad as the Republicans."
Wednesday, May 11, 2011
Are Americans' Taxes Too High?
According to USA Today, "Americans are paying the smallest share of their income for taxes since 1958 ... .
"The total tax burden - for all federal, state and local taxes - dropped to 23.6% of income in the first quarter [of 2011] ... .
"By contrast, individuals spent roughly 27% of income on taxes in the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s - a rate that would mean $500 billion of extra taxes annually today, one-third of the estimated $1.5 trillion federal deficit this year."
Maybe 23.6% is too high. I don't think so, not compared with all I get for those taxes, but maybe it is. Nonetheless, I was surprised to learn that it was so low. I was particularly surprised to learn that it was so low by comparison to how high it had been in previous decades.
If one listens to the "debate" in the public market place of ideas, one would conclude that the share of our incomes being taken for taxes was higher than it had ever been. Certainly the tax protesters would have one believe that, and I suspect that they believe it themselves. I do not remember one time when anyone has made it clear that our tax rate as a percentage of our incomes is lower than it has been in decades.
I think that's important to know when trying to decide whether we should begin to balance the federal budget by raising taxes, cutting services for the poor and powerless, or a combination of the two.
It is really important to make sure we are speaking truth to ourselves in this public market place of ideas. Really important.
"The total tax burden - for all federal, state and local taxes - dropped to 23.6% of income in the first quarter [of 2011] ... .
"By contrast, individuals spent roughly 27% of income on taxes in the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s - a rate that would mean $500 billion of extra taxes annually today, one-third of the estimated $1.5 trillion federal deficit this year."
Maybe 23.6% is too high. I don't think so, not compared with all I get for those taxes, but maybe it is. Nonetheless, I was surprised to learn that it was so low. I was particularly surprised to learn that it was so low by comparison to how high it had been in previous decades.
If one listens to the "debate" in the public market place of ideas, one would conclude that the share of our incomes being taken for taxes was higher than it had ever been. Certainly the tax protesters would have one believe that, and I suspect that they believe it themselves. I do not remember one time when anyone has made it clear that our tax rate as a percentage of our incomes is lower than it has been in decades.
I think that's important to know when trying to decide whether we should begin to balance the federal budget by raising taxes, cutting services for the poor and powerless, or a combination of the two.
It is really important to make sure we are speaking truth to ourselves in this public market place of ideas. Really important.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)