Is Donald Trump Telling the Truth?

There are many things Donald Trump has said in the course of his presidential campaign; indeed, in the course of his life.  Each of those things can and should be examined for truthfulness.  But, one of the most famous things he said was about Mexican immigrants to the United States.  So, I will begin by examining those statements.

In his speech announcing that he would run for president of the United States, he said:

“When Mexico sends its people, they’re not sending their best.  They’re not sending you.  They’re sending people that have lots of problems, and they’re bringing those problems with us.  They’re bringing drugs.  They’re bringing crime.  They’re rapists.  And some, I assume, are good people.

“It’s coming from more than Mexico … .  It’s coming from all over South and Latin America … .”

Is this statement true?  I will examine the truthfulness both of his literal words and of his apparent (and generally accepted) meaning.  The reason it is necessary to examine the truthfulness of what he says and what people think he means is that those are often quite different.  For example, in this announcement speech, he didn’t say that all illegal Mexican immigrants were drug users or dealers, criminals, or rapists.  In fact, he didn’t even say that most of them were drug users or dealers, criminals, or rapists.  But, that’s what most people assumed he meant.  This assumption comes from both the context and the tone of what he said, not from his exact words.

So, I will start by examining the truth of the statement based on the actual words, not the generally assumed meaning.

“When Mexico sends its people, they’re not sending their best.”  It is impossible to know if this statement is literally true.  For one thing, there can only be one “best,” so Mr. Trump could not have literally meant that the Mexican government did not send their “best” citizen, since he clearly refers to “best” in the plural.  Second, the only people who Mexico verifiably sends are its diplomats.  There is no evidence, at least none that I have been able to find, that Mexico sends anyone other than its diplomats.  So, literally, the question becomes “Are the Mexican diplomats to the United States among Mexico’s best?”

The most obvious Mexican diplomat is the ambassador from Mexico to the United States.  According to Wikipedia, the current ambassador from Mexico to the United States is Miguel Basáñez-Ebergenyi.  The Mexican government pays him $12,114.43 per month for his services.

Again according to Wikipedia, Dr. Basáñez-Ebergenyi holds a Ph.D. in Political Sociology from the London School of Economics in England.  According to the website wes.org, the enrollment rate in college in Mexico in 2011-12 was 32.8%.  I could not find statistics on the number of Mexicans who hold Ph.D.s or those who hold Ph.D.s from foreign universities, but it is safe to assume it is a lot less than 32.8%.  He is married to Tatiana Beltran, who also holds a Ph.D.

“Prior to his appointment as ambassador, Dr. Basáñez-Ebergenyi was an academic who taught classes at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University.”  According to their website, Tufts University was established in 1852 and has three campuses in Massachusetts and one in France.  It has 11,767 students, of which 5,847 are graduate students and 1,246 are international.  It has a faculty of 1,423, giving it a faculty to student ratio of approximately 1 to 8.

“Dr. Basáñez-Ebergenyi's career includes work directing public opinion polls both for private firms and for the Mexican government. He is a former President of the World Association for Public Opinion Research and he has also held several positions in the state and federal government in Mexico.

“Additionally, Dr. Basáñez-Ebergenyi has authored, co-authored, and edited 13 books on values, public opinion, and politics.”

Of course, we cannot tell whether Dr. Basáñez-Ebergenyi is literally Mexico’s “best,” but it would be hard to imagine by what standard he would not be considered one of Mexico’s best.

I was unable to find any statistics or data on the characteristics of the other diplomats Mexico sends to the United States, so I was unable to verify whether they were among Mexico’s “best.”  But, I think it is safe to say that Mexico does not intentionally send its “worst” citizens to staff its embassies and consulates in the United States.

So, it is safe to conclude that Mr. Trump’s statement, “[w]hen Mexico sends its people, they’re not sending their best … ,” is, at the very least, literally misleading.  It is safe to conclude that when Mexico sends its people, they are sending those who they consider to be among their best.

Of course, I don’t believe that’s what he meant, but that’s what he literally said.  It was not literally true.  I believe he knew at the time he said it that it was not literally true.  If he said it intending that people should believe it, it was a lie.

More later.